Week 1 of the 2024 season brings a fresh slate of matchups, and for running back prop bettors, that means a fresh set of volume questions. Our model has crunched the numbers for the Rushing Yards market, and three names separate themselves at the top of the board — with a handful of intriguing names lurking just behind them.

The Headliners

Leading the pack is Kyren Williams (LA), projected for 96.3 rushing yards against the Lions. That's the highest mark in our entire Week 1 rushing model, and it signals just how central Williams projects to be in the Rams' offensive game plan right out of the gate. When a back is projected to clear the 90-yard threshold in Week 1, it's usually a strong indicator that the model sees a heavy, early-down workload being funneled his way.

Right behind him is Jonathan Taylor (IND), projected for 90.4 rushing yards in a matchup against Houston. Taylor has long been viewed as a workhorse when healthy, and this projection suggests the model expects the Colts to lean on him early in the season as they establish their offensive identity.

Rounding out the top three is James Conner (ARI), projected for 90.0 rushing yards against Buffalo. Conner's number is essentially in a dead heat with Taylor's, and it's a reminder that Arizona's offensive approach could feature significant ground-game volume against a Bills front that will be tested early.

Three backs, three different offenses, three projections separated by less than seven yards — that's the kind of tight grouping that makes prop shopping fun, but also makes precision matter.

The Names Building Intrigue

Below that top tier, our model has also generated projections for a group of backs who carry just as much name recognition — if not more. Christian McCaffrey (SF) faces the Jets, Nick Chubb (CLE) takes on Dallas, Aaron Jones (MIN) squares off with the Giants, Breece Hall (NYJ) draws a tough test against San Francisco, and Najee Harris (PIT) heads to Atlanta.

Each of these players ranks on our Week 1 board, but their exact projected numbers are reserved exclusively for NFL Data Edge members. Given how tightly bunched the top three projections already are, the separation — or lack thereof — among this next group could be exactly where the sharpest prop value is hiding.

Unlock the Full Board

Our model projections are exactly that — projections, not guarantees — but they're built to give bettors a real analytical edge before locking in Week 1 rushing props. If you want the complete numbers for McCaffrey, Chubb, Jones, Hall, Harris, and every other player across every market, join NFL Data Edge today and get full access to the model.