Data-driven projections and betting edges built from our own model — recent form, target volume, and defensive matchup, turned into calibrated over/under probabilities. Not a competitor's picks; our math.
Every number is generated by a model that only sees what was known before kickoff — validated on five seasons of data.
Projections come from open nflverse data and our own math — recent form, usage, and matchup. No scraped picks, no plagiarism.
We don't just guess a number — we output a true probability for each over/under, calibrated against real outcomes.
In season, we compare our probabilities to de-vigged sportsbook lines to surface the props where the value actually is.
Player and game data flows in from nflverse every week — legal, open, redistributable.
The model projects each player's expected production and its full probability distribution.
Projections meet the book's lines; the biggest gaps become the picks you see.